Does Halal Certification Matter? Evaluating Its Moderating Effect on the Halal Industry and Economic Growth in Indonesia

Abstrak

Navigating the economic landscape of Indonesia's halal industry requires moving beyond direct impacts to understand the dynamic role of halal certification. This study examines the moderating effect of certification on the relationship between the halal industry and national economic growth from 2020 to 2024. Through time-series analysis using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression, the findings present a complex reality. Contrary to international trends, the halal food and beverage and pharmaceutical and cosmetic sectors negatively influence economic growth. Conversely, Muslim fashion, halal media and recreation, and halal tourism show positive economic contributions. The issuance of halal certification acts as a significant moderator, exacerbating the negative impact of the food and beverage sector while amplifying the positive effects of the other subsectors. Ultimately, this research highlights that early-stage policy implementation has yet to translate the halal industry's vast potential into uniform economic prosperity. The empirical evidence offers actionable recommendations for policymakers to mitigate short-term compliance costs, refine certification frameworks, and transform halal standards into robust drivers for export-oriented expansion.